Three Sticking Points Keeping Trump and Tehran From Shaking Hands

Ten weeks into a war nobody quite wanted but everyone seems happy to keep prosecuting, the United States and Iran are doing what warring nations do best: talking past each other through a third party while the oil markets quietly lose their minds.

The conflict, which kicked off on 28 February 2026, has now dragged into its tenth week. A US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon landed on 16 April, raising hopes that the main event might follow. Spoiler: it has not. Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner handed Tehran a tidy 14-point memo proposing a 30-day negotiation window. Iran sent its counter-offer back via Pakistan on Sunday. Trump, in characteristic restraint, posted that the response was 'TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE' on Truth Social. So that went well.

Strip away the bluster and there are essentially three issues holding everything up. Let's walk through them, because they each matter rather a lot for the price of your next tank of petrol.

1. The Nuclear Question: How Long Is 'Temporarily'?

The headline demand in the US plan is straightforward enough on paper. Iran would suspend uranium enrichment, ship its existing stockpile (reportedly around 440kg of 60%-enriched uranium) out of the country, and surrender its underground enrichment facilities. In return, Iran could eventually run a limited civilian programme.

The fight is over the word 'eventually'. Reporting from Axios suggests the US wants a moratorium stretching as long as 20 years, while other outlets, including Al Jazeera, peg the figure closer to 12. Iran, predictably, wants something far shorter. Anything beyond a handful of years looks, from Tehran's perspective, less like a pause and more like permanent disarmament dressed up in diplomatic frock coat.

There is also the matter of trust. Iran wants explicit guarantees against future attacks, plus the withdrawal of US forces stationed in the region around its borders. The Americans, having just spent ten weeks bombing Iranian assets, are unlikely to find that easy to sign off on.

2. The Strait of Hormuz: A Very Expensive Traffic Jam

Roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day. Iran has been making life unpleasant for shipping there, and the US naval blockade is doing the same in reverse. According to figures cited by Iran (and not independently verified by other major outlets), the blockade is costing the Iranian economy an estimated $435 million a week. That stings.

Iran has floated the idea of charging fees for passage through the strait. The US position, backed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, is that you cannot charge tolls on an international waterway. UNCLOS is fairly unambiguous on this point: the right of transit passage is not something coastal states get to monetise.

The market is, of course, not waiting for the lawyers to finish arguing. WTI crude futures jumped nearly 5% on 11 May to $100.30 a barrel, with Brent touching $105.76. For UK drivers already wincing at the pumps, the next few weeks of forecourt pricing are unlikely to spark joy.

3. The Proxies and Missiles Problem

Here is where things get properly thorny. Even if the nuclear file and the shipping lanes get sorted, there is the small matter of Iran's regional network and its ballistic missile programme.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in remarks attributed to a recent television interview (we will hedge our bets on the exact phrasing), has reportedly insisted the war is not over until Iran's proxies and missile capabilities are dealt with. That is a maximalist position which makes any deal much harder to land.

Hezbollah strikes from Lebanon, which began around 2 March in response to the killing of a senior Iranian figure, opened a second front that has already cost Lebanon 2,846 lives according to the country's health ministry, including 108 health and emergency workers. The Lebanon ceasefire took the immediate heat off, but it did not address the underlying question of whether Iran can keep arming and funding militias from Beirut to Sanaa.

Why Should Anyone in Britain Care?

Fair question. Beyond the obvious human cost, three things are likely to land on UK doorsteps in short order.

The first is fuel. Oil flirting with $100 a barrel feeds through to pump prices, heating bills, delivery costs and ultimately your weekly shop. The Bank of England's inflation forecasts, already wobbly, get noticeably wobblier when the Strait of Hormuz starts coughing.

The second is markets. UK pension funds hold significant energy and defence exposure. A prolonged war tends to be good news for one and complicated news for the other, depending on whose missiles are landing where.

The third is the slightly more abstract but genuinely important question of what kind of world the Trump administration is willing to negotiate. A 30-day window with a public-facing 'TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE' tantrum is not exactly the patient shuttle diplomacy of yesteryear. Whether you cheer that or despair at it probably says a lot about your politics.

The Likely Path Forward

Reading the runes, a deal is not impossible, but it is going to need both sides to climb down from their starting positions. Iran will have to swallow a longer enrichment moratorium than it wants. The US will have to offer firmer security guarantees, probably including a clearer timeline on troop posture, than it has so far put on the table. The strait issue will likely get parked in a separate working group because it is the one thing that genuinely cannot be fudged.

The cynical reading is that both leaderships have domestic reasons to keep the war ticking over a little longer. Trump enjoys looking tough. Iran's hardliners enjoy a foreign enemy. The oil traders, frankly, are not complaining either.

The hopeful reading is that ten weeks of war is already too many, and the Lebanon ceasefire shows that, when the politics align, deals can happen quickly. Watch what Pakistan does next. The fact that Islamabad has emerged as the messenger of choice tells you the back channel is still very much open.

For now, three issues, three deadlocks, and a lot of expensive ships sitting in the wrong bits of ocean.

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