Trump, Oil and the Art of the Tango: Why Crude Keeps Dancing to the President's Tune

A Volatile Waltz Worth Watching

If you have ever wondered what happens when the world's most unpredictable politician meets the world's most skittish commodity market, the answer is: chaos set to music. Since US strikes on Iran began on 28 February, oil prices have lurched around like a contestant on Strictly who has had one too many at the afterparty. And the lead dancer? Donald Trump.

The Numbers Tell a Story

Before the bombs started falling, Brent crude was pottering along at roughly $72 a barrel. Unremarkable. Boring, even. Then the strikes began, and the barrel price did what barrel prices do in wartime: it panicked.

By 19 March, Brent had briefly touched $119 a barrel, driven skyward by Iranian retaliatory strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, the largest of its kind on the planet, along with hits on Saudi and Kuwaiti infrastructure. The International Energy Agency has since called it the largest supply disruption in global oil market history, with Strait of Hormuz flows collapsing from 20 million barrels a day to virtually nothing.

As of Friday 27 March, Brent settled at $112.57, its highest closing price since July 2022. Not exactly reassuring for anyone who drives a car or, you know, eats food that arrives by lorry.

Trump's Suspiciously Well-Timed Announcements

Here is where it gets properly interesting. Every time oil creeps towards eye-watering territory, Trump appears with a calming word. Talks with Iran are going "very well," he posted on Truth Social, announcing a pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure until at least 6 April.

The market briefly exhaled. Then it remembered something important: Iran has flatly denied these talks are happening at all. Tehran called Trump's claims "market manipulation," which is a rather bold accusation but not an entirely unreasonable one. CNN published an analysis examining what it called Trump's "suspiciously market-timed announcements on Iran." When a sitting president's statements start looking like they were drafted with one eye on a Bloomberg terminal, questions are fair game.

Are Traders Catching On?

This is the crucial bit. Early in the conflict, a reassuring Trump post could knock a few dollars off a barrel almost instantly. Traders wanted to believe. But the pattern appears to be weakening.

On Thursday 26 March, US stock markets suffered their biggest single-day drop since the war began, with the S&P 500 falling 1.7%. And on Friday, despite Trump's optimistic noises about negotiations, oil kept climbing anyway. The market, it seems, is starting to trust actions over tweets.

Goldman Sachs has suggested elevated oil prices could persist through 2027. Wall Street economists have raised recession odds significantly. The vibe, as the analysts might put it, is not great.

Why This Matters Beyond the Trading Floor

Oil at $112 is not just a number on a screen. It feeds directly into petrol prices, heating bills, food costs and the general mood of an economy. When supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz are effectively shut, the ripple effects touch everyone from haulage firms to households.

Trump's ability to move the needle with a social media post was always a remarkable, if slightly terrifying, feature of modern markets. But if traders are genuinely growing numb to the reassurances, the safety valve disappears. What you are left with is a genuine supply crisis, a war with no clear end date, and a president whose credibility on the subject is being openly questioned by the very country he claims to be negotiating with.

The Bottom Line

The tango between Trump and oil markets has been captivating to watch, but the music may be changing. When both your dance partner and the audience stop believing you are leading, you are just stumbling around the floor on your own. Brace for a bumpy spring.

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