Gaza's Peace Process Is Gasping for Air While the World Watches Iran

Remember when the Gaza ceasefire felt like a genuine turning point? That was roughly five and a half months ago. Now, with the Iran war consuming every headline since late February, the fragile peace framework is quietly unravelling, and hardly anyone seems to be paying attention.

A Ceasefire Built on Optimism and Not Much Else

When Trump's 20-point peace plan brought fighting to a halt in October 2025, sealed at the Sharm el-Sheikh agreement on 9 October, there was cautious hope. The UN Security Council backed it with Resolution 2803 in November, passing with 13 votes in favour and only China and Russia abstaining. A glitzy signing ceremony launched the Board of Peace at Davos in January 2026. Then came $7 billion in reconstruction pledges at a Washington gathering in February. On paper, it looked like momentum.

In practice? That $7 billion sounds generous until you learn the UN, World Bank, and EU estimate Gaza's total reconstruction bill at around $70 billion. So we are at roughly 10% of what is actually needed. The US separately committed $10 billion to the Board of Peace, which helps, but the gap remains enormous.

Disarmament: The Sticking Point Nobody Can Unstick

Nickolay Mladenov, the High Representative for Gaza on the US-led Board of Peace, briefed the UN Security Council on 24 March with a detailed disarmament roadmap. Reports from Al Jazeera and AP describe an eight-month, five-stage process, though some accounts reference a broader six-to-nine-month window for a phased Israeli troop pullout.

Hamas's response? A resounding "no thanks." The group has repeatedly refused to surrender its weapons while Israel's occupation continues, which is about as surprising as rain in Manchester. Senior Hamas official Bassem Naim accused Mladenov of "trying to be more royalist than the king himself" by tying every issue back to the weapons question. Some Hamas figures have accepted the framework "in principle" with reservations, but that is diplomatic speak for disagreeing with most of the details.

On the Ground, the Ceasefire Looks Rather Leaky

Here is the uncomfortable part: Israeli air strikes in Gaza have continued despite the ceasefire. Multiple sources report between 648 and 687 Palestinians killed since the truce began, averaging over four deaths per day. That is hardly the environment in which you build trust for a disarmament process.

Meanwhile, the 15-member technocratic body meant to govern Gaza, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), chaired by Ali Shaatt, has been unable to actually enter Gaza. Israel has blocked committee members from crossing in. Hamas, for its part, has been busy reimposing taxes on goods and services, quietly reasserting civilian and security control.

Some progress exists on paper: 200,000 temporary housing units are reportedly planned, and 5,000 new Palestinian police officers are being recruited, many trained in Egypt. Palestinian envoy Riyad Mansour highlighted these figures, though plans and reality in Gaza have a long history of parting ways.

Iran: The Elephant That Swallowed the Room

When the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, global attention shifted overnight. As Amjad Iraqi, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, and others have noted, the diplomatic bandwidth for Gaza simply evaporated. France and Germany had already declined to join the Board of Peace, and now even participating nations have their eyes elsewhere.

The danger is not just distraction. A wider regional conflict makes every actor in the Gaza equation more entrenched, more suspicious, and less inclined to compromise. The ceasefire was always fragile. Without sustained international pressure and genuine follow-through on reconstruction, it risks becoming another line in a long history of broken promises.

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