Trump's Approval Ratings Sinking to 'Dead Sea' Levels While Pope Leo XIV Soars, Data Analyst Says

From Catholic Champion to Catholic Problem

There is a certain poetic irony in watching a politician who rode a wave of Catholic support into the White House now find himself thoroughly outshone by the Pope. According to CNN data analyst Harry Enten, Donald Trump's approval ratings among American Catholics have nosedived so dramatically that the former darling of the faithful is now, well, faithless territory.

Speaking on CNN's News Central programme on Monday, Enten laid out the numbers with the sort of gleeful precision that only a data nerd delivering bad news can muster. And the numbers? They are rather brutal.

The Polls Tell a Punishing Story

An NBC News poll conducted between 27 February and 3 March 2026 found Pope Leo XIV sitting pretty with a net favourability rating of +34 (42% favourable, just 8% unfavourable). That made him the most popular public figure tested in the entire survey. Trump, by contrast, limped in at -12 (41% favourable, 53% unfavourable). That is a 46-point gap, which is less of a divide and more of a chasm.

Enten suggested Trump might be feeling a touch of the green-eyed monster over these figures, noting the president's support had "dropped down into the Dead Sea" among the very demographic that helped put him in office.

And he has a point. Trump won Catholic voters convincingly in November 2024, beating Kamala Harris among this group. The article cites a 20-point margin attributed to a CNN exit poll, though it is worth noting that several other outlets reported the gap as closer to 12 points (55% to 43%). Either way, it was a comfortable lead that has since evaporated.

The Fox News Numbers Are No Kinder

If Trump was hoping friendly territory might offer some shelter, a Fox News poll from late March told a similarly grim tale. Among Catholics specifically:

• Trump's net approval had dropped to -4 (48% approve, 52% disapprove)

• Catholics opposed US military action in Iran by a net 10 points

• Catholics disapproved of Trump's handling of Iran by a net 20 points

For a president who built his coalition partly on the back of Catholic voters, those are the sort of figures that make campaign strategists reach for the antacids.

How Did It Go So Wrong?

The short answer: Trump picked a fight with the Pope. The longer answer involves a spectacular series of own goals that would make even the most committed supporter wince.

It started when Pope Leo XIV branded Trump's threat to annihilate Iran's "entire civilisation" as "truly unacceptable." A measured response from the head of the Catholic Church, you might think. Trump, however, does not do measured responses.

He took to Truth Social to call Pope Leo "WEAK" on crime and "terrible" on foreign policy. Insulting the spiritual leader of over a billion people, including roughly 22% of the American electorate, is certainly a bold strategy. Whether it qualifies as a good one is another matter entirely.

The AI Jesus Incident

Then came the moment that truly beggared belief. Trump posted an AI-generated image that appeared to depict him as Jesus Christ healing the sick. The backlash was immediate and ferocious. He deleted the image, then offered the explanation that he thought it showed him as "a doctor."

Now, reasonable people can disagree on many things, but confusing an image of Jesus with an image of a physician requires a level of visual misinterpretation that stretches credulity to breaking point. The incident managed the rare feat of uniting people across the political spectrum in collective bafflement.

The Vatican Tension

The backdrop to all of this is a broader deterioration in US-Vatican relations. Some reports have claimed that US officials threatened the Vatican with military force during a tense meeting in January, with Pentagon official Elbridge Colby allegedly warning a Vatican envoy that the US military could "do whatever it wants." However, this claim is heavily disputed. Both the Pentagon and the White House have formally denied this characterisation, and no verified transcript of the meeting exists. The claim originates from Vatican sources and should be treated with considerable caution.

What is not in dispute is that the relationship between Washington and the Holy See is at its frostiest in recent memory. And for Trump, the political cost is becoming measurable.

Why This Matters Beyond the Headlines

Catholics represent roughly 22% of the US electorate and are widely regarded as the largest swing religious group in American politics. They are not a monolithic voting bloc. They include progressives, conservatives, and plenty of people in between. Winning them is not guaranteed for either party, which is precisely what makes them so valuable.

Trump's ability to command strong Catholic support in 2024 was a genuine electoral asset. Watching that support crumble barely a year into his term is politically significant. It suggests that picking a public brawl with the Pope, posting questionable AI imagery, and pursuing an aggressive foreign policy stance on Iran have collectively managed to alienate a group he once counted firmly in his corner.

The Verdict

Harry Enten, it should be noted, is a data analyst and journalist rather than a pollster himself. He analyses the work of others. But his reading of the current landscape is hard to argue with. The numbers are clear: Pope Leo XIV is riding high, Trump is underwater with Catholics, and the gap between them is extraordinary.

Whether Trump is genuinely jealous of the Pope's approval ratings is, of course, speculation. But given his well-documented sensitivity to polling numbers and his willingness to attack anyone who outperforms him in any metric, it would not be the most surprising revelation of the year.

One thing seems certain: if Trump's strategy for winning back Catholic voters involves more Truth Social tirades against the Pope and AI-generated images of dubious theological accuracy, the Dead Sea comparison might end up being generous.

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